FORBES: A Victory For Bitcoin
While Bitcoin remains highly speculative – I do not view it as a currency and as per my 3 Rules of Bitcoin I am cautious on it, but from a pure trading standpoint, I think it can rally from here in the near term.
The bullish case is that it survived the recent bearish case so well.
Back on September 15th it appeared to me as though not only China, but a number of public figures were trying to crack down on Bitcoin (link). It was successful at first as Bitcoin continued its decent, trading as low as $3,000. It then rebounded sharply.
The proponents, dare I say, ‘evangelists’ of bitcoin argue that this is exactly why investors should care about bitcoin. Bitcoin is meant to be ‘separate’ from central banks and governments. While not its only use, the most diehard cryptocurrency proponents focus on that aspect.
Well, it seemed to pass this latest test with flying colors. While it looked like it was being pushed down, it emerged. I think the fact that is passed this recent test will usher in a new wave of bitcoin enthusiasts. Basically, some of those who doubt it, will take the recent trading as confirmation that Bitcoin does deliver some of what they have been hearing – the ability to avoid being trapped within the confines of existing national borders, etc.
The cynic in me, will point out that many people are incentivized to keep Bitcoin going. Miners, in particular, come to mind. Bitcoin Mining remains very profitable at these prices. In a world where there are no rules (Rule #2 of my 3 Rules of Bitcoin) we have to consider, more so than for standard investments, that there may be attempts being made to force Bitcoin to rebound as it is lucrative for them.
I think the jury is still out on the long term viability of Bitcoin – but from a pure trading standpoint – I’d expect some more demand to develop. The apparent slowdown in the push to launch Bitcoin ETFs or other products that mainstream investors find easier to use (or are just more comfortable with) will slow the rise. That ‘mainstream’ capability is a requirement, in my opinion, to an even larger potential surge.